Searching for an Exit?
Article by Harley Schlanger
President, TLO
A diplomatic mission undertaken on April 27 by the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Abbas Araghchi, to break the stalemate in negotiations to end the war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, appears to have been rejected by U.S. President Trump, in remarks he made the day after Araghchi met with Russian President Putin. Prior to meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg, Aragchi met with diplomats in Pakistan and Oman, who have been intermediaries in the talks.
Araghchi presented a scaled down proposal of steps to end the fighting: end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and postpone talks to resolve the nuclear issue. This proposal appears to have the backing of Putin. Prior to their meeting, Putin said that Russia sees how “courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and for their sovereignty.” He added that Moscow hoped that “guided by their new leader, the people of Iran will endure this challenging period of hardship....We will do everything in your interests, in the interests of people of the region, so that peace gets achieved as soon as possible,” he said.
PUTIN, TRUMP PHONE CALL
Following the Putin-Araghchi talks, the Russian President initiated a 90-minute call to President Trump, which was described by Russian officials as a "friendly, frank and businesslike discussion." However, a post by Trump on April 28 showed that despite the talk of the need for an "exit strategy", he remained unmoved by Araghchi's initiative. He posted an AI-image of himself with a machine gun with the caption, "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY". Later that day, in comments reported by Axios, Trump reportedly said that the U.S.-imposed blockade of the Strait will continue, with resumption of military action if Iran does not submit.
In his usual resort to undiplomatic language, he summarily dismissed Araghchi's initiative, saying “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them." He concluded by repeating that he would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, despite his insistence that the U.S. and Israel have "obliterated" Iran's peaceful nuclear program.
The prospect of a renewed assault on Iran comes despite reports that the reduction of oil and natural gas shipments through the Strait has already unleashed a global food emergency. The oil price surged after Trump's threat to renew the war, reaching at one point $125 per barrel. Fertilizer prices have doubled, as fertilzer production requires natural gas. The U.N. estimates that the reduction of fertilizer availability due to the war threatens the food supply for forty-five million people.
In further comments on the discussion with Putin, Trump said he would prefer that the Russian leader concentrate on a ceasefire in the war with Ukraine, which continues.
KING CHARLES REASSERTS THE "SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP"
At the same time Trump was responding to these developments, he was hosting the visit of King Charles III to the U.S. The King's comments were designed to reassert support from both parties in the U.S. Congress for the "Special Relationship", and elicited repeated cheers for his false assertion that the U.S. and U.K. are united by the "inheritance of the British Enlightenment", and that they are "instinctively like-minded" when it comes to strategic outlook. Peppered throughout his talk was support for the defense of Ukraine and "her courageous people" in their fight against "Russian aggression," bolstered by the "unique relationship of an Atlantic partnership."
The British continue to supply weapons and logistical support to Ukraine, as is the U.S., despite the friction on the surface over the British backing of the Coalition of the Willing, while Trump is allegedly engaged in arranging a U.S. exit from the war. On the British side, Charles son, Prince Harry, was in Kiev April 23-24, praising Ukrainians for their "strength not just in bravery and capability, but in unity, in trust."
And in spite of the barbs directed at British Prime Minister Starmer by Trump over his stated reluctance to make a full commitment to the war against Iran, the British are continuing to provide Israel with weapons shipments, along with the U.S., as the Israeli stockpile of arms is nearing depletion.
NO EXIT!
The Special Relationship was reaffirmed by the visit of Charles, with the red carpet welcome from President Trump backed by the expressions of delight from the War Hawks of both U.S. parties for the alliance backing Endless Wars, which serve the interests not of the British nor American people, but of the corporate cartels of war.
As in the trip of Trump last September to London, in which he was accompanied by CEOs and officials of Tech and AI companies to sign deals with their British counterparts, the events in Washington included officials of the new Military-Industrial-Complex from the tech sector. They were no doubt pleased by the joint commitment to Permanent War.
Ironically, one leader who is a participant with Starmer and Macron in the Coalition of the Willing, German Chancellor Merz, expressed his concern over the failure to develop an exit strategy. He attributed this to the inability to define an intent in the launching of war. Merz said that Iran is "obviously stronger than expected, and the Americans clearly don't have a truly convincing strategy in negotiations....
"You don't just have to get in" to a war, he said, "you also have to get out." He pointed to the examples of costly prolonged warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq as an example of this problem.
Unfortunately, this "insight" is not present in his approach to Russia, as Merz continues to wreck the German economy through militarization in preparation for an upcoming war which he expects against Russia in the next year or two.